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 Predictions: Putting you money where your mouth is...
Clearly the momentum is looking good for Mitt Romney but there are still two debates left and a lot can happen in the last few weeks. Furthermore, Obama has had a clear lead from the beginning of this election or campaign and still maintains what looks like a solid lead in large states like New York and California.
Anyone?
Ps... by the way, predicting that it will be close is not much of a prediction.
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dmaestro
14-Oct-12, 00:05
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I have said that I expect Obama to win but by a very, very slim margin. By losing the first debate so badly Obama threw away months of branding Romney and gave him room to redefine himself as a moderate with a small but critical group. He also hurt dems in close elections. While the margin would have been close anyway this blunder put him on the defensive. Biden did well and stopped the bleeding for now but Obama has to make a serious effort. I tend to think that since there are only a few undecideds, if Obama comes back in the next debates and shows how much Romney has changed his tune he will hold enough of the female and minority vote to win. But that all depends on Obama doing well and restoring some enthusiasm and getting his supporters motivated to vote. It also depends on whether Romney trips himself up while redefining himself. I think by the end of the third debate we can make accurate assessments based on polls of likely voters. To say that the left is frustrated with Obama's inability to explain what he is doing is an understatement. But we view the election of Romney as a total disaster. Our big problem is that Obama has an enthusiasm gap and the less people who vote normally the more conservative the result are.
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Obama to win ...but what the hell would I know ? !!!
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... in the absence of better candidates, Biden will beat Ryan ... most folks have already made up their minds ... and Independents are leaning away from the right. It becomes more a question of trusting slow but sure recovery, or trusting an inexplicable replacement plan. People seem to be choosing the laborious ongoing recovery over dreamy pink pill therapy.
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I predict Obama will win but 6 states. It will turn out to be an Electoral College landslide win for Romney, although the popular vote will be very close.
The Obama administration is unraveling at a most opportune time. The economy will continue struggling and the bogus unemployment numbers are going to be readjusted upward. The foreign policy fiasco is showing how inept they have been.
When it comes time to vote, people are NOT going to say: "Anybody but Bush". They are going to be saying "Anybody but Obama". Most voters are not stupid.
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People will forget the tradition of 85 years of Republican party Presidents setting records for Government spending and vote for Romney thinking he will fix the budget deficit, then they will be cruelly disappointed once again.
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cody16
14-Oct-12, 15:14
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My money is on Obama. Regardless of whether I want him to or not (though I do), I will be greatly surprised if he does not win.
The only statement in this thread that made me do a double take was the one that read "Most voters are not stupid." I disagree with this statement for, if you look around at most of the people you interact with on a day-to-day basis, obvious reasons.
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It's fun to guess now. Mainly because things aren't settled. And a lot will still happen.
Romney has momentum and states that Obama had pinned down are turning into toss up states. I believe the election will be very close generally, but if Obama doesn't stop the bleeding he will lose in an electoral landslide. States are falling away, women are lining up with Romney and independents, despite Chaz statement above, are leaning toward Romney by 15-20 points right now. That statistic alone is the whole election....
My guess today...is that Romney will win at the same clip McCain lost last cycle.
Florida, Virginia, Ohio....they are all lining up. Not that it will matter, but California has dropped from its 22 point Obama lead by nearly 10 points...that is a story that ought to have the Obama campaign scrambling to put resources in the right places. The problem is, he is bleeding out every where. So, he is getting spread thin...his cash is a problem and Romney has kept his powder dry for the last few weeks...
That is a Democrat nightmare.
dok
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NEW POLL: Mitt Romney Is Crushing Obama In The Swing States
Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney has opened up a five-point lead on President Barack Obama among likely voters in the country's top 12 swing states, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll released Monday.
The poll reflects growing support for Romney among female voters. The Republican candidate now ties Obama with female voters, 48 percent to 48 percent, and leads among male voters by 12 points.
The USA Today/Gallup survey echoes results from other state and national polls in the wake of the first presidential debate earlier this month.
The two candidates go head-to-head in their second debate Tuesday at Hofstra University in New York.
Read more: www.businessinsider.com
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dmaestro
15-Oct-12, 20:22
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But that is because Obama basically showed up as an empty chair in the last debate. If he does better in the debate some will swing back. Romney is back to where he needed to be but not where he wants to be. It is still Obama's to lose...
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dmaestro
19-Oct-12, 07:23
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Obama did stop the bleeding, but is just hanging on at this point and it is hard to see where he can make much change given the fewer undecideds. More events could go wrong with Obama. Romney can hold most of his recent gains it seems. I want to see more collective polling data after the final debate. If it is say within a percentage point or two in enough critical swing states, even with reports obama is ahead, it is likely the enthusiasm gap favors a Romney win. The electoral college could differ from popular results again this cycle.
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