Even turnout means blowout
by Mike Flynn 26 Oct 2012
This morning, Gallup released a bombshell survey of likely voters this November. It wasn't a horse race poll, i.e. which candidate is ahead, but rather a look at the underlying demographics that will make up the electorate this November. They slap the survey with a very misleading headline, "2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008." While this is true in many respects, it obscures one very big difference. For the first time in a presidential election, more Republicans will vote than Democrats.
In 2008, 54% of likely voters identified as Democrat or lean Democrat. 42% of likely voters identified as GOP or lean GOP. In other words, the electorate, including independents who lean towards a particular party, was D+12. This year, however, the Democrat advantage has disappeared. 49% of likely voters today identify as GOP or lean GOP. Just 46% of likely voters are or lean towards the Democrats. This is a 15-point swing towards the GOP from 2008 to an outright +3 advantage for the GOP. By comparison, in 2004, when Bush won reelection, the electorate was evenly split, with each party getting support from 48% of likely voters.
If these numbers are within even a few points of what this survey suggests, then Romney will win decisively and the GOP will pick up the Senate. We are likely standing on the edge of another GOP wave election.
Keep in mind, the Gallup survey suggests that voter turnout among Obama's biggest supporters, i.e. minorities and young voters, will generally match 2008 levels. Obama's problem is that, relatively speaking, there just aren't that many of these voters. Voters under 30 will make up 13% of the electorate, one point below '08 and even with '04. Minorities will make up 20%, up 5 from '04 and only up 1 point from '08.
Obama's chief problem is that everyone else in the electorate has become much more Republican.
Most of the media's polls anticipate the 2012 electorate looking either as Democrat as 2008 or even more Democrat. Obama's slim lead in state polls rests on the foundation of a massive Democrat turnout advantage. This Gallup survey, though, puts that lie to rest. If the electorate is actually even or R+ anything, Romney wins in a blowout.
The 2010 election gave the House to the GOP and many State governments to the GOP. We made the biggest gains in decades in that that election. Since then:
The economy has not recovered, more people are in poverty, more people are on food stamps and welfare, and we still have an outrageous number of people out of work.
People with full-time hours face their hours being cut back to part-time because of Obamacare. Insurance costs are going up.
Auto gasoline costs have doubled. Energy costs are skyrocketing.
The Fed is printing money which will result in massive inflation and it is already lowering the value of the dollar, so that savings accounts, investments, fixed incomes are all worth less.
Most of the voting public realizes this and there is nobody to blame but BO and the Democrats. They had a super majority for two years.
So, WHY would anybody be surprised?
One comment. In general, we all have opinions but I and most on the center and left base them on documentation, evidence and fact. I see nothing convincingly substantial supporting your assessments yet. I will continue to monitor data for trends, but I ain't seeing it so far, and I study the data daily.
What I did get was something about BO going to win, based on rising poll numbers. I'll reply to that one with a weather report about San Diego.
Over the last three days the average temperature here has risen 5 degrees. That's about 1.5 - 2.0 degrees per day. Based on that, the temperature here next month will be 212 degrees and water will boil!
It is all public source data. Polls show an end to the Romney surge and a slight shift towards Obama. It is too close to be certain yet but analysts favor Obama since Romney isn't holding his general white advantage in Ohio. As I told Dok, I have fun with you all but when it comes to facts I carefully check what I write. Romney has a better chance of winning the popular vote than electoral votes. Had you righties worked with us to abolish electoral votes I would be much more fearful. That would be an ironic twist of fate. Too late now...
It is about race, stupid..
White voters still matter
By JAMES HOHMANN | 10/26/12
RENO, Nev. — If Mitt Romney wins the presidency, part of the lesson of 2012 will be that white voters still matter.
The polling couldn’t be clearer or more polarizing: A POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll has Romney ahead of President Barack Obama among white voters by 18 points, 57 percent to 39 percent. Gallup showed Romney ahead among whites by 20-plus points this month.
A Washington Post-ABC News Tracking poll released Thursday showed a similarly large spread between the GOP nominee and Obama at 21 percentage points.
It’s the largest divide since George H.W. Bush carried white voters by 20 points over Michael Dukakis in 1988. Obama trailed John McCain among white voters by just 12 points.
“There’s no doubt that running up the score with white voters is the only way Romney is going to win this thing,” said Tom Jensen, the Democratic pollster who runs Public Policy Polling.
“His numbers with African-Americans and Hispanics have barely moved at all. But, with white voters, Romney went from being up 10, or 12, to 19, or 20. That 20-point threshold with white voters is probably the absolute bare minimum he needs to at least win the popular vote. He may need to win whites by 25 percent.”
The nation’s first African-American president is counting on an electorate at least as diverse as the 2008 coalition of voters that put him over the top — including record numbers of Hispanics and Latinos — in 2012. Minority voters formed a record 26 percent of the electorate four years ago, compared with 74 percent of white voters.
But whether the demographic trend lines continue and the minority vote increases again in 2012 is hard to predict — though Obama campaign officials cite data showing 2012 would defy historical trends if they did not. The winner hangs in the balance.
“The notion that in 2012 the [demographic trend toward more diversity in the electorate] is going to change is patently absurd,” said one senior Obama campaign official.
Most establishment Republicans privately acknowledge their alarm about the party’s long-term demographic problem. In 1992, 87 percent of voters were white. In 2000, that figure was 81 percent. In 2008, partly propelled by the African-American desire to elect the first black president, the white share of the vote fell to 74 percent.
The POLITICO poll earlier this month showed Romney nabbing 36 percent among Latinos and 4 percent of African-Americans.
If Republicans don’t make inroads with Latinos, mega-states like Texas might eventually be in play and Florida’s hue will become less purple and more blue.
But some public polls show a similar share of white voters likely to vote as four years ago, which poses a problem for Obama and favors Romney.
Republican pollster Ed Goeas, who helps conduct the bipartisan POLITICO poll, notes that white voters are breaking for Romney beyond what party registration would suggest. Goeas notes that white voters currently back Romney at a level 10-points ahead of their normal vote behavior with a Republican candidate, and that accounts for a full 7 percent shift on the ballot, Obama’s 2008 winning margin. He sees Romney pulling in the mid-30s of the Hispanic vote, about on par with George W. Bush in 2000.
“So the white vote matters very, very much, especially with the monolithic African-American vote,” he said. “The bottom line is that’s what pulls the race even.”
Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who conducts the bipartisan Battleground poll with Goeas, expects non-white turnout to be about the same as four years ago.
“Demographic growth will make up for any decline in turnout,” she said.
Matt Barreto, a pollster for Latino Decisions and a University of Washington political scientist, notes that a small shift in the composition of the electorate could change the outcome.
“Most likely, there will probably be an uptick [in minority voting],” he said. “On the high end, you could be talking about 29 percent [of the vote being] minority — and probably more realistic is 27 or 28. If it’s not 29 percent, if it’s only 25 percent, if it doesn’t grow from 2008, then that’s good news for Romney. … Romney’s best hope at this point is that he wins an overwhelming share of the white vote and that minority turnout is low.”
“If [Republicans] hit 60 percent of the white vote and lose, which is quite possible, it would mean by 2016 they would need a minimum of 64 percent of the white vote,” he said.
Age polarization also reinforces racial polarization. Lake says that 88 percent of voters 65 and older are white, while only 56 percent of those 18-29 years old are white.
The difference is stark between Obama’s support among white voters this year and four years ago.
McCain led Obama among white voters by 12 points, according to 2008 exit polls. Four years before that, George W. Bush beat John Kerry among white voters by 17 points to win the White House.
The diversity of the electorate is key to the electoral outcomes in states like Nevada and Colorado, where Romney campaigned earlier this week.
PPP released a survey Wednesday putting Obama ahead by 4 points in Nevada, 51 percent to 47 percent. Romney led with whites by 15 points, 57 percent to 42 percent, while Obama pulled 69 percent of the Hispanic vote.
The more right-leaning American Research Group has Obama up 2 points in the Silver State but Romney leading with whites by 12 points.
In Nevada, McCain only won whites by 8 points as he lost the state to Obama. Bush won Nevada whites and the state by 12 percent in 2004.
Four years ago, Hispanics made up 15 percent of the electorate in Nevada. That will grow, but it depends on the success of the Democratic field operation. A PPP poll showed Obama winning the early voting in the state, 61 to 39 percent. Senior Obama campaign officials say they have snagged 29,000 voters who didn’t cast ballots in the 2010 midterms.
PPP’s Jensen said Obama is running ahead in Nevada and Ohio because it has more minority voters, and Romney has kept the race a toss-up in New Hampshire and Iowa because there are more white voters. Jensen said Wisconsin has become part of the map partly because of Romney’s support among white voters.
On a two-day Western swing that wrapped up Wednesday, Romney aimed some of his appeal to Latinos. He has struggled to find a voice when it comes to the growing Hispanic vote, talking up his standard economic message instead of making any promises on issues like immigration.
The GOP nominee mainly leans on surrogates, paid media and a field operation to woo the growing demographic. A Latina small businesswoman introduced his vice presidential contender, Paul Ryan, who in turn introduced Romney, in the Las Vegas suburbs on Tuesday.
“We don’t have to settle for four more years of this listless administration,” the woman, Alma Tovar-Olsen, said, reading from talking points provided by the campaign. “We cannot afford four more years.”
The former Massachusetts governor palpably fears the appearance of pandering. He’s modulated the harsh tone he used to win the Republican nomination — who could forget his call for “self-deportation?” — but he has not explicitly changed his hard-line immigration positions.
Both the Romney campaign and super PACs supporting him are using paid media to drive up Obama’s negatives with Hispanics.
Central to Romney’s closing argument is that he worked with Democrats in Massachusetts to get things done — something that tests well with all voters — whites, Hispanics, and African-Americans — suggesting that he’s willing to compromise.
“I came in and some of the folks here were holding signs, ‘Democrats for Romney,’ all right? I love that,” Romney told the crowd in Denver. “Paul and I have a few things in common. One is, we both learned how to reach across the aisle in our elected office, to find ways to work with Democrats, Republicans, independents to get the job done.”
With cameras snapping and Romney still speaking, Ryan walked over to shake hands with a few of the Latinos in the front row.
“And we need you to reach across the neighborhood to Democrats and independents as well, make sure they understand that this is a year to vote for real change if you want to have real recovery,” Romney continued. “I need you to get those folks to vote for us!”
Swamp the system
So then, each suspected vote must be 'challenged' specifically and individually by the poll worker at the time of the vote or it gets counted and disappears into the vote mix. In effect, the valid votes serve as camouflage for the invalid votes. So if they can swamp the system, swamp the poll workers, they can get away with it. That's just one tactic of many to stuff the ballots. Then you have 'handlers' telling busloads of non-English speaking/reading 'voters' who to vote for.
Is voter fraud being committed in Ohio?
By: Sara Marie Brenner, 10/26/2012 09:25 PM
COLUMBUS, Ohio — Two volunteer poll workers at an Ohio voting station told Human Events that they observed van loads of Ohio residents born in Somalia — the state is home to the second-largest Somali population in the United States — being driven to the voting station and guided by Democratic interpreters on the voting process. No Republican interpreters were present, according to these volunteers.
While it’s not unusual for get-out-the-vote groups to help voters get to the polls, the volunteers who talked to Human Events observed a number of troubling and questionable activities.
A source, who wishes to remain anonymous, is a volunteer outside the Morse Road polling center. She has witnessed Somalis who cannot speak English come to the polling center. They are brought in groups, by van or bus. The Democrats hand them a slate card and say, “vote Brown all the way down.” Given that Sherrod Brown is the incumbent Democrat Senator in Ohio, one can assume that this is the reference.
Non-English speaking voters may use an interpreter. The interpreters are permitted by law to interpret for the individual voting; however, they are forbidden from influencing their vote in any way. Another source who also wishes to remain anonymous has seen Democrat interpreters show the non-English speaking Somalis how to vote the Democrat slate that they were handed outside. According to this second source, there are not any Republican Somali interpreters available.
The logical follow-up question is whether a non-English speaking person is an American citizen. Although Republican leadership in Ohio passed a voting reform law, it was repealed by the legislature itself after the Democrats threatened a referendum. According to the Ohio Secretary of State’s web site, someone wanting to vote early in Ohio must supply one of the following in writing on the absentee ballot form, whether voting early by mail or in person: an Ohio driver’s license number; the last four digits of the social security number; or a copy of a current and valid photo identification, military identification, or a current — within the last 12 months — utility bill, including cell phone bill, bank statement, government check, paycheck, or other government document that shows the person’s name and address in addition to the voter registration acknowledgement.
The voter is not required to show the driver’s license or social security card, but must merely write it on the absentee ballot request form. While the individual would be required to show a utility bill, bank statement or other printed document if he or she chooses that option, this is in lieu of writing the driver’s license or social security number. Therefore, the information cannot be checked against the Bureau of Motor Vehicles or other state databases. Essentially, a person is asked to check a box stating that they are a citizen, and the poll worker is to trust that they are the person who is listed on the item being shown or the information being written. In other words, someone can be an illegal resident of the state of Ohio and the United States, get an apartment, turn on the heat, bring in the Columbia Gas bill, register to vote by the deadline, and vote by showing that same bill. There is then no verification that this individual is a citizen of the United States.
Matt McClellan, the press secretary for Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted, explained, “There is a process to challenge a voter’s eligibility. The point in time for a challenge to be brought ended mid October. A poll worker could challenge a voter if they had questions as to whether or not a voter was registered or eligible to vote.” However, if the poll worker does not raise the issue at the time the voting occurs, that person’s vote will otherwise be counted on election day along with everyone else’s vote. McClellan was not aware of any reports of irregularities at the Morse Road voting place in Franklin County.
Two phone calls and a text message to the Public Information Office at the Franklin County Board of Elections were not returned.
According to the Somali Community Association of Ohio’s web site, over 45,000 Somalis live in Ohio. Only 40 percent have become citizens of the United States, and only 25 percent speak English well enough to get a job.
The second source mentioned has seen voter intimidation at this same voting place. A Mitt Romney bus stopped near the voting center, approximately 30 Democrats who were outside handing out the slate cards rushed over to the bus. They yelled at the bus, and swarmed around its door when anyone attempted to exit the bus. This, from the “tolerant left.”
All elements of this story are still developing and will be updated as new information is uncovered. Stay tuned.