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WSJ: Health Premiums Could Double Under Obamacare
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softaire
14-Jan-13, 13:17

WSJ: Health Premiums Could Double Under Obamacare
Health insurance costs will rise as much as 100 percent under Obamacare, Merrill Matthews, resident scholar at the Institute for Policy Innovation, and Mark Litow, a retired actuary, write in The Wall Street Journal.

“The reason: the congressional Democrats who crafted the legislation ignored virtually every actuarial principle governing rational insurance pricing,” the duo states. “Premiums will soon reflect that disregard — indeed, premiums are already reflecting it.”

Obamacare requires that health insurers accept everyone who applies, that they can’t charge more based on serious medical conditions, and that they pay for some uncovered medical conditions.

The guaranteed acceptance drives people to wait on buying insurance until they get sick. Obamacare includes a financial penalty to keep people from doing that. But, “it is too low to be a real disincentive,” Matthews and Litow say. “The result will be insurance pools that are smaller and sicker, and therefore more expensive.”

They feel confident making that projection because eight states enacted similar requirements in the mid-1990s and “wrecked their individual health insurance markets,” the pair states. “Premiums increased so much that Kentucky largely repealed its law in 2000.”

States that will likely experience the biggest insurance price increases under Obamacare are Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, Wyoming, and Virginia — between 65 percent and 100 percent, Matthews and Litow write.

The editorial argues that President Barack Obama was right when he said during fiscal-cliff negotiations that “we have a healthcare [spending] problem,” and that problem is of his own making.

Just before the healthcare reform bill was passed in 2010, Obama said, "Everybody who's looked at it says that every single good idea to bend the cost curve and start actually reducing health-care costs are in this bill."

That leads Journal editors to wonder: “why is Mr. Obama invoking a special healthcare spending problem now?”

The answer: “The rational way of reading his fiscal-cliff refrain is as a concession that his cost-control promises are being repudiated by reality. Entitlement spending is headed up, as are overall U.S. healthcare costs.”

Health entitlements — Medicare, Medicaid, the children's state insurance program, and soon Obamacare subsidies — will explode to account for 10.4 percent of GDP over the next 25 years from 5.4 percent today, despite Obamacare, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

But Obama “seems to believe his own advertising,” The Journal editorial states. “The White House position is that the government health gnomes now have the tools they need to solve the problem . . . Nothing in practice supports this delusion.”

The Health and Human Services Department estimates that health costs will surge 7.8 percent in 2014, when Obamacare is due to be fully implemented, and 6.2 percent a year on average for the decade thereafter.

www.newsmax.com
chaz5
14-Jan-13, 14:54

... good, healthy discussion points. While many are debatable to the extent implied, it is also admittedly an area that could easily be mismanaged or even abused thus causing explosions of costs. Now is the time to negotiate good safeguards, good audits, and appropriate penalties for infringement of benefits and fraud. While I believe this to be possible, do you believe it not possible to negotiate such safeguards? Or, would you just rather retreat to what we had pre-healthcare?
dmaestro
14-Jan-13, 16:58

Softaire misses the point.
The GOP had 8 years to deal with the problem of increasing uninsured. They did nothing, fiddling while people died or went bankrupt. Instead of closing loopholes they want to go back.
Disgusting...
changeling
14-Jan-13, 17:37

The federal government will at least save some money here.  

www.policymic.com

Pity about all the women in Texas who may need help to cope with unwanted pregnancies because they cannot planned parenthood facilities, not forgetting the cost to Texas taxpayers.
astinkyfart
14-Jan-13, 19:59

DM
People will always die, going bankrupt is another story.
softaire
14-Jan-13, 20:33

DM misses the point completely or is trying to deflect us away from it.

The point is that with Obamacare, health care insurance costs are going to double.

I remember when we were discussing this prior to passage and the chant, at that time, was that it will bend the cost curve down. We will save money. BO himself said that insurance costs for an average family will go down by $2000 per year. Not long ago, I posted an article that showed costs were actually up by about $2000 per year.

We have posted articles about how employers are going to be reducing health care benefits, or reducing worker hours to below 30 per week. They are going to be downsizing or not expanding.

None of the things that BO and DM promised are happening but the things that conservatives warned about are happening.
chaz5
14-Jan-13, 22:37

... double? ... only indefensible speculation at this point; but the naysayers are already convinced. It's already a given that initial costs will go up until all the premium payers start contributing. But, nonetheless, right now there remains much debate; and, my mind remains open.
softaire
15-Jan-13, 08:35

"only indefensible speculation at this point"

You are in contradiction by the WSJ. You are in contradiction with a lot of employers. You are in contradiction with the CBO. I'm wondering if you are always this obstinate and contrary or if it is simply because I posted the article.

(btw... you are sounding more and more like DM now.)
chaz5
15-Jan-13, 08:42

Softy ...
... I have not made up my mind yet ... how more clearly could I state it. Then you accuse me of something more ... then again, that's your debating tactic, isn't it?
softaire
15-Jan-13, 18:18

chaz
You have NOT made up your mind about anything in all the time you have been here. I'm not sure you have a mind that can come to any conclusions. You don't even have opinions... at least that you will share.
chaz5
15-Jan-13, 20:57

... why are you lambasting me again? I give my opinions frequently, and am honest when I'm forming one ... and I regret that this irritates you so much that you can find nothing better to do but play these kind of games every time you get the chance. Just give it up ...
softaire
15-Jan-13, 21:14

I hadn't mentioned the article to a self-employed consultant friend of mine.

Today as we were talking he mentioned that he just got notice that his insurance premiums were going up (again). I asked "How much?". He said that "they have now doubled in the last two years".

You don't have to believe it, ask around. See if it is the case around you.

His company is Anthem, here in California, and they have said premiums are going up about 25-28%. I'm not sure why his doubled, or if it is universal. Maybe Anthem is actually raising rates more than their stated 25-28%.

softaire
16-Jan-13, 09:07

More on Obamacare ramifications...
Obamacare Increasing Health Insurance Costs and Unemployment
by Art Kelly | 1/15/2013

Obamacare will not be fully implemented until 2014, but it is already raising health insurance rates by double digits and causing increased unemployment.

As a result of several provisions in Obamacare, health insurance premiums will increase by between 10% and 20%. This will cost a family about $720 more a year.

Obamacare’s requirement that employers with 50 or more full-time workers provide health insurance has prompted companies to slash jobs and workers’ hours.

The health care law “will have a negative impact on job creation" in 2013, says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, who is President Obama’s favorite economist.

Meanwhile, 31% of franchisees and 20% of franchisors plan to cut jobs to get under the 50-employee threshold. 10.4% of franchisees agreed with the statement: “We are no longer confident that our business model is profitable.”

Another study indicated that 51% of businesses which don’t currently provide health insurance are planning to reduce their employees’ hours to avoid triggering Obamacare’s requirements and penalties.

For example, Pennsylvania Community College of Allegheny County has already slashed the hours of 400 adjunct instructors, support staff, and part-time teachers to sidestep Obamacare. Doing so will save the college an estimated $6 million.

As a result of the medical device tax contained in Obamacare, Stryker medical supply cut 1,170 jobs.

Other medical device manufacturers, including Boston Scientific, Dana Holding Corporation, Welch Allyn, Medtronic, Kinetic Concepts, and Smith & Nephew have each forecast the need to cut hundreds of jobs as a result of Obamacare.

Zane Tankel, Chairman and CEO of Apple-Metro, which runs 40 Applebee’s restaurants, explained the effects of Obamacare: “We've calculated it will cost some millions of dollars across our system. So what does that say? That says we won't build more restaurants. We won't hire more people."

And the Heritage Foundation states that many workers will lose their current health insurance, as employers dump employees into the Obamacare insurance exchanges.

If Congress and the President don’t agree to repeal, or at least substantially modify Obamacare, the law will likely have a major impact on the 2014 elections.
dmaestro
16-Jan-13, 09:48

You guys want to repeal and let the employer funded system fall apart withoit remedies not work on problems and loopholes. Who are you kidding?



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