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thumper
29-Oct-09, 13:33

Overstated?
STIMULUS WATCH: Stimulus jobs overstated by 1,000s
Oct 29 10:59 AM US/Eastern
By BRETT J. BLACKLEDGE and MATT APUZZO
Associated Press Writers

WASHINGTON (AP) - An early progress report on President Barack Obama's economic recovery plan overstates by thousands the number of jobs created or saved through the stimulus program, a mistake that White House officials promise will be corrected in future reports.
The government's first accounting of jobs tied to the $787 billion stimulus program claimed more than 30,000 positions paid for with recovery money. But that figure is overstated by least 5,000 jobs, or one in six, according to an Associated Press review of a sample of stimulus contracts.

The AP review found some counts were more than 10 times as high as the actual number of jobs; some jobs credited to the stimulus program were counted two and sometimes more than four times; and other jobs were credited to stimulus spending when none was produced...
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It's a good thing Obama's people are 'taking care of us'! Only $31.5 million per job created or saved!? Hot damn what a deal!
I just wonder where the leftover $31.45 million per job went... Guess I'm in the wrong business.  
thumper
29-Oct-09, 13:35

Clunkers: Taxpayers paid $24,000 per car
Auto sales analysts at Edmunds.com say the pricey program resulted in relatively few additional car sales.

CNNMoney.com
By Peter Valdes-Dapena, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: October 29, 2009: 12:59 PM ET
kingofpawns
29-Oct-09, 16:26

thumper...
As long as the business you are in doesn't involve numbers, you will be
ok. The number of jobs we are talking about (whatever it turns out to be) is
related to $2.4 billion of the $787 billion stimulus program and not the entire
$787 billion. If it turns out that 25,000 jobs were created, then it is about $96,000.00
per job.
kingofpawns
29-Oct-09, 16:40

Thumper...
You should give links to the entire article for the cash for clunkers.

Here is the CNN article:

money.cnn.com

and here is Edmunds.com's reply to the Obama administration. If they
are correct, then the economy is improving much faster than we think.
My view is that it is too early to calculate what might have been sold without
the clunkers program:

www.edmunds.com


zorroloco
29-Oct-09, 16:45

also
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.5% annual pace in the third quarter, as massive government stimulus helped drag the economy out of the longest and deepest recession since the 1930s, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday.

i was against the stimulus package. i think the economy is so messed up that we should let it collapse and start over. but it is too early to declare it a failure.

also:

The U.S. unemployment rate has been steadily rising, from below 7% at this time last year to more than 9% by May 2009 (see The Standard's prediction about when it rose above that level -- months before the original deadline). Economists and other experts have been predicting that the rate will break 10%, but it's not certain when that will happen.

Considering the fact that the September 2009 figure reached 9.8%, it could happen soon -- the next scheduled release of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is on November 6.

On the other hand, the rise in unemployment levels has not been consistent. Over the summer, the rate actually declined slightly. Moreover, recently there have been many signs of an economic recovery, ranging from the Dow breaking 10,000 to an increase in GDP to solid earnings reports from many technology companies.
softaire
29-Oct-09, 19:16

I can tell you this... In California the unemployment rate is about 12.5% and in Michigan it is higher than that. Credit has NOT loosened up for the small businessman although it is available if you don't mind being robbed, mugged, and raped at the same time.

The figures released today concerning jobs is just another one from the "most truthful and honest", "most transparent", "most post-racial" administration in history. Those figures are as truthful as the claim that the new health care bill will be "deficit neutral". HA!

We were told that by passing the Stimulus Bill overnight, without reading it, allowing over 9000 pieces of pork to be added, that unemployment would not go over 8.0%. How's that change working for you?

You can put all the happy, smiley faces on it you want but the country is still in a severe recession and it probably would already be over except for the "help" from our government. We won't be getting out of this recession because just as business does start to pick up, higher taxes and inflation will kick in.

We have morons leading this country. The question is: "are they doing it on purpose?"



anomalocaris
29-Oct-09, 19:18

This is my OPINION
We have not started to recover yet. The stock market is up but unemployment is still high. Consumers are not buying and people are not working. The growth we have seen is temporary. Stimulus or not we would have recovered. They needed a huge amount of money that way every time you give someone 20 million dollars they can say "well if you compare 20 million to one trillion its such a small percentage". The stimulus was designed to make special interest groups richer. I do not wish anything to fail but a lot of the growth WAS due to some of the stimulus money. For instance cash for clunkers, but, how long will that last. In the end I believe it cost more for the tax payer than it was worth. Paying people ungodly amounts of taxpayer money to purchase something isn't real recovery.
zorroloco
29-Oct-09, 20:02

stinky
i agree. but there is no real recovery. this is the best they can do without letting the whole
rotten system collapse. it will anyway, though this may delay it for awhile.
saintinsanity
30-Oct-09, 01:27

I hope it collapses
before I have to pay back all my student loans. Because I sure as hell can't get an engineering job right now, and social work doesn't pay me enough to repay my loans at all. I'm in a tight spot! I AM working though, so I can't complain. I still get to eat.
kingofpawns
30-Oct-09, 10:42

Stinky, Jeff, Paswnt,
You make some interesting and good points. The theory behind an economic
stimulus is that when financial systems crash, governments can stop the collapse and hold
the economic system up long enough for the private sector to recover and start
to grow again. If governments had not responded at all to the financial collapse,
things would be worse than during the great depression (e.g., we would be looking
at 25% unemployment or higher). The fundamental problem is whether the stimulus
can hold up the economy long enough for private sector recovery and the creation
of new jobs. At this point, nobody knows.
softaire
30-Oct-09, 11:53

kop
I'm no expert and could be wrong but it seems to me that government is doing everything wrong as far as stimulating the economy.

First of all, they have only released about 16% of the money.
Secondly, they are raising taxes and implying that many taxes will be raised.

Thirdly, the money crisis has gotten worse, or at best stayed the same, for small businessmen. Only the fat cats on Wall Street have gotten better off with their bonuses.

The stimulus has NOT worked. We still have ungodly high unemployment. Without jobs, the public will not spend and the stimulus will not arrive. WE NEED JOBS, NOT government spending. Let Business do the Spending... NOT government.

captaingoodvibes
30-Oct-09, 13:33

over here they sent every tax payer and pensioner a cheque for AU $900. Businesses that
sold electrical good like TV's etc have had a great profit season as have the gambling
venues. A proportion of my clients on pensions with psychosis binged on drugs and alcohol
and became less well.

The overall impression is that OUR stimulus DID have positive effects, albeit in skewed and
(some) unanticipated ways as reported here. For now of course we are back to being the
goldilocks economy though I'm not convinced it'll last. I believe that the west US, UK (less
so OZ but....) are still in for a long tough ride...
softaire
30-Oct-09, 15:50

Mark
Over here today the administration said they "have saved or created 600,000 jobs" because of the stimulus. Never mind that we have actually LOST 3.5 MILLION jobs overall since January.

Realize also that there is NO way to measure how many jobs are saved... it just can't be done. However, jobs lost is a fairly reliable statistic.

Then, realize that 95% of those 600,000 jobs were in the PUBLIC (Government) sector. Only about 5% of the jobs were in private companies.

Next, realize that they are planning to extend unemployment benefits but they are delaying signing that bill. They are delaying it because as soon as it passes ALL the people who are out of work and not still getting benefits (and are not now counted in the unemployment numbers) will again be in the unemployment numbers and it will probably jump to 16% or more.

They have been spending the "stimulus" money on stimulating government. I hope it is better over there where you are. WE have put our children and grand children into debt in order to "stimulate" government. They have already been talking about a SECOND STIMULUS bill.

It is my belief that we could stimulate the economy better by letting business expand and hire people. When people are employed, they will spend money on things. John Kennedy, Ronald Regan, and George Bush lowered taxes and stimulated the economy. President Obama and company are making a mistake by not extending the Bush tax cuts, growing government, spending outragously, growing debt, and planning all sorts of tax and fee hikes.

I'm afraid of what is coming next year.
proginoskes
31-Oct-09, 05:34

If you've not figured out the game here yet, I'm not sure you ever will.
chaz-
31-Oct-09, 08:33

Softy ...
... were you really expecting an instant turn-around from that huge slippery slope we were in? Are you really saying that anyone can [should?] predict perfectly whatever success begins to evolve as it does in fact turn around? And, to any one particular observation, isn't there always more than one way to interpret it based on our own biases, family, culture, etc.? I understand there may be more than one way to 'skin the cat', but why are you always so negative? Are you unable to support things that you do not completely agree with?
softaire
31-Oct-09, 10:09

Chaz
When they passed the overnight stimulus bill they said it would stop unemployment from going above 8% because we had thousands (if not millions) of "shovel-ready" jobs to put Americans to work. They said it would put 2.5 MILLION workers back to work.

That didn't happen and, so far, they have only released about 16% of the money which has mainly gone into government expansion, Medicare payments, and unions... but not into jobs. Last I heard, the bulk of that money is set to be released in 2010, just in time for the economy to rise before the elections... strange coincidence there.

I expect them to tell the truth. I expect them to know more than they showed that time and missed the mark so badly. Maybe the first time President Obama has been truthful about this was yesterday when he applauded the GDP rise but warned that it is quite possible that unemployment will continue to rise also.

You can NOT borrow your way out of debt and until jobs are actually being created, the recession will not be over. It doesn't matter how much money the government prints and pumps into the economy with "cash for clunkers" programs... that is short-sighted and will not solve the problem.

We need jobs but the government is NOT doing anything that will help the economy create jobs. It is doing everything it can to create more government. Government is NOT the solution, government is the problem.

chaz-
31-Oct-09, 14:13

Softy ...
... I do respect your observations and critiques. It may surprise you that I likely agree on many of your "government is the problem" kind of observations. However, I try hard to be objective and do not hold the Prez (or any politician) accountable for precisely made predictions during such a huge economic turn-around event. I realize decisions are made, and re-made, and altered and massaged, as conditions change. Of what value is it to perpetually quote what a politician said a long time ago when the situation has changed so much? I'd rather have a flexible politician than one who will not budge from a possibly incorrect premise.

I may not agree that the folks in power have the one and only solution, but I support those who have the responsibility for making the decisions that impact us all. Finally, I assess my own biases when assessing how other people are or are not objective.

Decisions had to be made and were by those who we had elected to do that job. When it again comes time to do so, we can then consider better options if there are any. In my heart, you would support the general making his choices in the field even though you disagreed with his commands ... and you would certainly want others around you to be similarly supportive.
chaz-
04-Nov-09, 12:06

Softy ...
... I thought I would hear back from you on this ... or did you and I find some common ground?
softaire
04-Nov-09, 13:15

Chaz
There is a BIG difference between being a "grunt" in the Marines and following orders, which in a combat situation can be life-determining, ... and being a citizen of a democracy that has prided itself in the participation of its' citizens and its' protections of the rights of citizens to disagree with the policies and policy making decisions of the elected officials.

In one, you DO follow orders necessarily and in the other, it is your obligation to object when you see mistakes being made. Last year, during the campaign, Hillary was screeching that it was her right and our duty to object to an administration that she (we) thought was wrong. Don't you remember?
chaz-
04-Nov-09, 16:06

Softy ...
... OK, fair enough to suggest a balancing thought like you have. You absolutely have a right to disagree with elected officials as you do ... and I continue to support your right to do so. In reality, no president is going to be 100% right or wrong ever (or even close). Even when Bush was in, and much more so when Reagan was in, I could regularly find areas of substance to support ... even though there were other areas where I might choose not to applaud. Being rather conservative myself [please don't laugh], you might be surprised at my voting record. I just choose to decline taking a position of critiqueing one side of the issue too harshly or too soon unless I can represent my opponents views well. Only then might I be able to choose a right course. I can see you and I approach such things differently.
anomalocaris
04-Nov-09, 16:26

chaz
We should all be like this. Would be better for the country as a whole.
softaire
04-Nov-09, 21:09

Chaz
"I just choose to decline taking a position of critiqueing one side of the issue too harshly or too soon unless I can represent my opponents views well. Only then might I be able to choose a right course."
*********************************************************************
I too think there are some things the President has done and is doing right (correctly or fairly good). I AM only criticising the areas where I think he is wrong and, sometimes, not him so much as the Democratic, Far-Left Congress. I don't expect him to be "right" all the time, nor would I care if it were that he was making good decisions in most areas.

As far as "Too Soon" is concerned... this could all be over in a year. IF he (and the Democratic Congress) had had their way, we would have already had a second stimulus bill, the medical/insurance health care reform bill, a tax & trade emissions tax bill as well as a host of other bills... all of which I consider BAD for the country as well as DANGEROUS.

So, to wait four years to "see how it went" would be foolish. If it is a bad idea, stop it now. Something as extreme as the health care bill can NOT be undone once it gets passed and implemented. You, for one, should be saying to Congress and the President "Slow Down, Let's discuss this. Let's think it through", I would think. What's the rush?

You are a slow, methodical, thinker person who needs time to adjust, adapt and absorb whether things are good or bad to make your decisions. I am more spontaneous in making my judgements. Sometimes I am wrong. When I determine I'm wrong, I change my mind. But, in my posts here (whether right or wrong), I usually have presented a reason, if not always a good argument, for stating what I think or believe.



chaz-
05-Nov-09, 08:52

Softy ...
... I'm not advocating speed with the health care proceedings ... how did you conclude that? I am advocating compromise ... and neither the far left nor far right are doing that. I think Obama may be caught up with his campaign promise to get it done the first year ... but I also think more compromise is coming before it is in fact enacted. It just may play out as it needs to.

Now when we were all talking about foreign policy it seemed you and others on the right were advocating "decisiveness" and "action now" ... and were chiding him for dragging his feet. I think the Prez may end up being very clever not responding with the kneejerk actions that a majority of the conservatives have been urging.

Semper Fi ...
thumper
07-Nov-09, 06:21

More smoke and mirrors 'accounting'
Many California jobs 'saved' by stimulus funds weren't in jeopardy
The Sacramento Bee
By Phillip Reese
Published: Friday, Nov. 6, 2009

Up to one-fourth of the 110,000 jobs reported as saved by federal stimulus money in California probably never were in danger, a Bee review has found.

California State University officials reported late last week that they saved more jobs with stimulus money than the number of jobs saved in Texas – and in 44 other states.

In a required state report to the federal government, the university system said the $268.5 million it received in stimulus funding through October allowed it to retain 26,156 employees.

That total represents more than half of CSU's statewide work force. However, university officials confirmed Thursday that half their workers were not going to be laid off without the stimulus dollars.

"This is not really a real number of people," CSU spokeswoman Clara Potes-Fellow said. "It's like a budget number."
anomalocaris
07-Nov-09, 13:02

Anyone
Who actually counts jobs saved in the equation is being naive anyway.
kingofpawns
07-Nov-09, 15:06

Thumper
As usual, you didn't provide the whole article, which undermines your point:

www.sacbee.com




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