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GameKnot related: Harpov's floor / rating system flaw
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markb56
19-Oct-12, 12:44

Harpov's floor / rating system flaw
Starting in April 2011, harpov hit his floor setting of 2300 and has remained there ever since. Since hitting his floor he has played 250 games and has lost 240 of these games, many of them from timeouts. Perhaps harpov is having personal issues, and if so he has my sympathy. But the effect of these continued losses has caused over 3078 rating points to be pumped into the rating system without having changed his rating a single point due to his floor setting.

This is an obvious flaw with the current rating system. My suggestion is that if a player remains at or near his floor for 50 games then his floor setting should be recalculated downwards. If this policy had been in place then harpov's floor would now be at 1300 and his continued losses would have negligible effect.

Gameknot.com
19-Oct-12, 19:42

The rating floor helps with several important issues, and the only real downside of it — a slight rating inflation — is a small price to pay. Especially considering that a significant amount of rating points are taken out of the system every time someone closes their account or otherwise stops playing. Everyone is given the initial rating of 1200 and the average rating of all players on GameKnot is around 1400 (50th percentile is ~1420 at the moment, see amr14 for example). So every time someone stops playing, 200 points are effectively taken out of the system on average, which more than compensates for the points added to the system when someone hits the rating floor.

Most importantly, the rating floor solves 2 big issues: someone's rating being reduced down to next to nothing because they were unable to play chess for a period of time and timed out in all of their games, which is very hard to recover from, both psychologically and time-wise. And the second issue it helps eliminate is when the player who timed-out in a lot of games was returning to playing, their rating being significantly lower than their real playing strength, which lead to a lot of unpleasant surprises, frustration and unnecessary accusations of "sandbagging" from their opponents.

We are however considering automatically reducing player's rating floor by 100 points once a year (i.e. on January 1st, for example), if their current rating is also within 100 points of the floor, but it hasn't been set in stone yet.
markb56
20-Oct-12, 00:13

I agree with the spirit of the floor, but in harpov's case he doesn't even appear to be trying to recover his rating. Rather, he has handed out over 3000 point to whoever he has played the last year and a half. I suppose then I should challenge harpov to a game and get a cut of the action.
Gameknot.com
20-Oct-12, 13:36

The rating points that are "handed out" because of the rating floor have very little effect in the long run. You see, the rating system works in such a way that it will automatically "smooth out" any sudden increases (or drops) in one's rating if it doesn't correspond to an improvement in one's chess playing ability as well. That's because the amount of rating points you get (or lose) after each game depends on the rating difference between you and your opponent.

For example, let's imagine a player rated 2000, who plays 20 games against other players rated equally (2000). Let's say they lose half of the games and win the other half (as expected). They will end up with roughly the same rating (assuming their opponents' ratings will stay the same as well). That's because they'll be losing 10 points after each defeat, and gaining 10 points after each win, so the wins and losses will cancel each other out.

Now, let's give that same player 400 rating points more out of the kindness of our hearts. Since they are still playing at the same level (2000, even though they are rated 2400 now), if they engage the same opponents as before (rated 2000), they'll still lose half and win half of the games. But in this case they'll only be gaining +1.8 points after each win, and losing -18 points after each defeat (remember, it's now rating 2400 vs 2000, or +400 point difference). So in the end, their rating will be lowered by +1.8*10 - 18*10 = -162. Which is over a third of the distance back down to 2000, their true rating. Eventually, after enough games are played, their rating will return back to 2000.

Now, let's assume that the same player, plus 400 free rating points, decides to only play equally rated opponents (i.e. 2400 vs. 2400). The math says that because they are still playing at the 2000 level, out of 20 games, they are only expected to win 2 games and lose the other 18. In the end, their rating will still be lowered by +10*2 - 10*18 = -160 points (remember, for equally rated opponents, it's +10 points for a win, and -10 points for a loss). So they are still heading back down to rating 2000, no matter who they play, and the 400 free rating points we "handed out" to them didn't make any difference in the long run.

By the way, the fact that the amount of lost rating points (-162 vs -160) is roughly the same in both examples (vs. 2000 and vs. 2400 players) is no coincidence. It is yet another excellent property of the Elo formula that is used as the basis of GameKnot's rating system — in the long run, it doesn't really matter who you play against, lower rated players or higher rated ones, your rating will still end up roughly the same. You'll just have to win a lot more games vs lower rated players (i.e. invest more time), or be prepared to face a lot more defeats and not so many triumphs vs higher rated players. But in the end, the only thing that will affect your rating is how well you play chess, nothing else. Although you'll probably learn more from playing higher rated opponents...
donfernando
24-Oct-12, 09:20

prohibition
Dont aloud players with a high percent of time outs to play games with 3, 4 or 5 days per move, penalize then, just playing more days per move, depending on their timeout percent
kingdawar
24-Oct-12, 14:00

donfernando
...there is nothing that guarantees that 7 days/move games have a lower time-out percentage. (GameKnot might have (or be able to produce) such statistics). Actually, because such games generally last longer, the chances of either of both players leaving before the game finishes might be somewhat higher.  
fret
30-Oct-12, 14:28

Is there any data on this?
This is actually an issue I've wondered about: I've been a member of this site on and off for well over five years (under a different handle previously). I've noticed at least the top ratings improve over that time period. When I was starting out, top ratings peaked at around 2550, now it's approaching 2700. That seems to suggest that there is some inflation going on.

Some of the "seniors" of GK (mateintwo, cyrano, fmgajin, for example) have roughly kept their ratings, however, indicating that either there is no inflation (or that they're simply playing worse these days...   ).

So, have you guys looked into this (just for curiosities sake) in the past?
Gameknot.com
31-Oct-12, 12:52

fret, are you referring to the possible rating inflation? We are of course keeping an eye on it. The short answer is -- we are seeing very little of it. The median rating value for all active players with an established rating does change over time, but with no clear trend, and certainly not at any rate that would be worrying.

The top ratings are not a good indication of a rating inflation for a number of reasons. For someone at the top who doesn't play a lot of games at the same time, it can take a while to reach their true rating, simply because there aren't that many equally matched opponents near the top. There are also new players coming up all the time, who's never played on GameKnot before. There is also the so-called Flynn effect at play, because chess has a direct correlation to person's IQ level: en.wikipedia.org
markb56
31-Oct-12, 14:17

There are two issues here: 1) overall ratings and 2) individual ratings. If I can get harpov to agree to play 10 games with me then I will surely win all 10 games and my individual rating will increase by 200 points. Sure, I'll gradually give up my ill-gotten rating points and eventually gravitate back to my true rating, but I'll sure have fun doing it and I'll get to stick out my tounge and say neh-neh-neh to everyone while doing so  .
markb56
31-Oct-12, 14:27

Here's an even more twisted scenario: suppose after winning those 10 games my new rating would be around 2100 and my floor rating would then increase to 1900. Since my true rating is around 1900 I could then lose 100s of games to all my favorite opponents and it wouldn't hurt me a bit.
fret
31-Oct-12, 14:29

Right. Bottom line: just think hard enough and you find a specific scenario where the current system - as any system - behaves suboptimally.

Now, back to something that matters?  
tobiasverhulst
27-Mar-13, 03:39

Gameknot.com, I still very much disagree with the reasoning you give for using rating floors like that. The scenarios described by markb56 seem to be far more important than the recovery from time-out, which are mostly the players fault anyway, that you describe. This whole system seems ready-made for abuse, since any player can 'give away' enormous amounts of rating points to someone else. If such a system is not needed in OTB rating systems, why should it be used here?
fret
27-Mar-13, 04:49

Because you can't really timeout in 20+ games simultaneously in OTB play just because you miss your deadline by some unforeseen circumstance. Obviously.

Also, that a system seems ready-made for abuse does not mean that it IS being (or will be) abused.
Gameknot.com
27-Mar-13, 12:57

It is not possible (or, nearly impossible) to create a system that can't be abused in some way, or to some degree. Unless it's a prison. And even then people manage to escape from it. If someone does attempt to blatantly "abuse" the rating floor on a large scale, just let us know and we'll shut down the offending account. Otherwise, the rating system should automatically take care of any rating points "handed out" because of the rating floor, as we have already explained in the post above (dated 20-Oct-12).
thundaknuckle13
28-Mar-13, 15:36

Abuse of any system is likely to happen
@ tobiasverhulst In the USCF their is a rating floor for OTB board. It is there to prevent sandbagging, higher rated players lowering their rating to compete in lower rating tournaments to guarantee some of the prize money. However, just as Gameknot said, that system still can be abused too.

For example, let's say a newly rated person plays enough games to establish a rating floor of 1100. That person can play at that level for as long as they want although their "real" rating is 1700 at home. So that person can play in a a 1400 rating or less tourney and have an easy time of getting a winning prize.

@ Gameknot I think even maximum security prisons can't 100% guarantee all rules are followed nor any other system for that matter.


- Jeremy
tactical_abyss
28-Mar-13, 16:37

CC chess has its own type of rating floors in the USCF as well.Its not exactly the same as OTB,but here is something I copied and pasted from the USCF CC rules.As you can see,sandbagging to lower your class rating does not exactly work,if you try and enter a prize tourney in CC chess next time with the hopes of getting an easy win with lesser rated opponents.In other words,if you were at 2200 in two seven player CC games(14 games) and forfeited those games in two 130 dollar prize tourneys(CC)and your rating was like 2090 or 2100 after losing those 14 games,the next time you enter a prize tourney you must enter at the 2200 level again as it states in #17 below:
Then there are penalties that the CC board will bring down on you with a continued pattern of sandbagging....as in #18 below.

Ratings:
17. Once play begins, games are rated whether they conclude
normally or by forfeit. If your rating decreases by one or
more rating classes as a result of forfeits or withdrawals, you
will be required to enter prize tournaments in the rating class
you occupied before the forfeits.

Penalties

18. The CCD may assess penalties for violations of these
rules. Penalties include, but are not limited to, informal reprimands,
warnings, reflection time reduction, forfeitures, or
withdrawal. Warnings are usually issued before more severe
penalties but the CCD may skip this step. Smooth and timely
completion of games is the main consideration. Penalties will
be assessed as necessary to accomplish this purpose.

TA